China’s growth ended in 2024 with full acceleration. In the last three months of the year, it changed by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Thanks to this acceleration, the target of 5% growth for 2024 was achieved.
Two factors contributed to this upturn: household confidence and retail sales, which have accelerated somewhat, thanks in particular to the many stimuli announced by Beijing, especially since September. But there is also the acceleration of industrial production. Fearing new tariffs promised by Donald Trump, many US companies have advanced their orders to Chinese producers, building up stocks before applying more restrictive entry conditions into the country. This allowed Chinese industrial production to accelerate by 6.2% year-on-year in December, the most substantial increase since Spring.
A crank return is expected in the first half of 2025. Donald Trump’s return to the White House will increase uncertainty for Chinese exporters and almost certainly raise barriers to entry into this market. More than ever, China will depend on alternative markets, especially its domestic demand, which remains far too weak to be the engine of a dynamic economy.
Beijing will, therefore, have no choice but to help its economy by announcing yet more new stimuli. We remain invested in this country with significant potential and affordable financial assets.