In the United States, orders for durable goods rebounded in September, a sign of the resilience of the American consumer that bodes well for the growth of the world's largest economy in the third quarter ending.
Investors saw the 0.2% rebound against the previous month as an encouraging sign. It aligns with the forecasts the US Federal Reserve announced at its monetary policy meeting: the economy will finally be more dynamic than expected in 2023 as in 2024, and the soft landing is within reach, at least for the US economy.
The US monetary authorities, therefore, seem to have understood the situation well, and the equity markets appreciate it.
And the oil flies away
On the other hand, an economy that manages to land smoothly is one whose hydrocarbon needs will ultimately be more significant than expected.
However, US oil stocks have continued to decline, as has often been the case since Spring. They are, therefore, partially to redo, which makes a guess a significant demand with the approach of the Winter. These two factors, taken together, supported the barrel's price, which returned to 94 USD, both for Brent, which serves as a reference for Europe and the WTI of the American market. This is terrible news.
The decline in energy prices after the peaks caused by the war in Ukraine was the most significant contributor to the gradual slowdown in inflation in our Western economies. The oil price rebound is clouding the cards when the world's major central banks believe they are close to the peak of key interest rates.
The situation is also likely to become tense in the United States, where voters hardly forgive their leaders for a surge in fuel prices. A little more than thirteen months before the next presidential election, there is little doubt that prices at the pump will begin to weigh in on American voting intentions. Washington will, therefore, do everything possible to inject as much black gold as possible into the markets to calm prices.
In short, while the US economy is finally encouraging and, at 3.7% in August, inflation remains at levels well below what most other major Western economies are experiencing, the course of the following quarters remains very uncertain. It is not the threat of a new shutdown of the US government that will help to increase visibility.
Despite the uncertainty, we remain investing in the US equity and bond markets.
