Brent is trading over USD 85 per barrel, the year's highest level. In question, an American economy whose dynamism remains impressive, synonymous with high demand, at a time when OPEC is extending the measures that restrain its production to support prices. Added to this, of course, are the tensions linked to the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, as Russian refineries were the subject of military strikes.
There is little doubt that the West will exert all its weight to prevent barrel prices from going further. Indeed, a rebound in energy prices would particularly impact our economies. At a time when the world’s major central banks are welcoming the gradual decline in inflation and aiming for a first fall in key rates in June, a rebound in energy prices would seriously compromise this benign scenario of a gradual fall in interest rates and economic recovery.
In addition, the presidential elections will occur in the United States in early November. As we know, the American consumer is susceptible to changes in fuel prices, and Joe Biden’s chances of re-election would be seriously jeopardised if oil prices soared again. Washington will, therefore, do everything it can to prevent such an outcome.
Without a significant geopolitical and economic worsening, the path of least resistance would be towards a barrel that will continue to oscillate around current levels.
