At a time when Europe is flirting with recession, the U.S. economy is showing growth rates worthy of the most dynamic emerging economies on the planet. The first revision of GDP figures for the third quarter shows that annualized growth was 5.2%. This speaks to a dynamism found nowhere else in the major industrialized economies.
Of course, annualization somewhat boosts this figure. But compared to the third quarter of 2022, growth is still 2.8%. The reasons for this vitality are numerous since all the lights are green. Private sector consumer spending is up and is still the leading driver of the economy, accounting for almost half of the growth.
Private investment is in full swing, with an increase of 10.5%, thanks in particular to the strong return of residential investment after nine consecutive quarters of contraction.
Consumption and investment in the public sector are not left out, increasing by 5.5%, driven by those of the Federal State but well followed by local governments and the various states that constitute the States-United, whose spending increased by 4.6%.
The only shadows in the beautiful picture that these figures show come from the side of household finances: disposable income stagnates suddenly. At the same time, the savings rate fell to 4.0%.
The room for manoeuvre available to the American consumer is increasingly narrow and points to a slowdown in economic activity in the coming quarters.
Nevertheless, at this point, everything leads us to believe that the Fed will successfully land the world’s largest economy without causing too much damage.
We continue to invest in the United States across all of our portfolios. See the example of a balanced portfolio: