The 4th quarter of 2022 is far behind us, but the US GDP for this period has been revised downwards again, with annualised growth reaching 2.6% (against 3.2% in the previous quarter).
The gradual slowdown of the world’s leading economy at the end of the year is mainly due to household consumption spending that is only increasing by 1%, the lowest level since the pandemic. This figure confirms what we already know: more expensive credit weighs on households and businesses, and US growth is expected to be weak in 2023.
On the other hand, it leaves no doubt as to the impact of the instability of the banking sector on demand in the United States. We know that when the economy moves at a pace, the slightest shock could precipitate it into a recession. Any tightening of credit conditions caused by the current uncertainty around US regional banks could significantly impact the economy's performance as a whole.
Such a scenario would be detrimental in the short term. But fundamentally, the American economy is healthy and doesn’t seem to be suffering from the significant imbalances it has suffered from in the past.
In addition, the United States is clearly on a long-term strategy that aims to secure its position as a world leader in all areas of the future, whether at the expense of China or Europe. A bet they’re about to win.
We invest in it in all of our portfolios.