In China, month after month, overseas merchandise sales are exceeding expectations. Exports grew at an annual rate of 7.2% in July. Over the first seven months of the year, they jumped by 6.1% and reached an all-time high.
This is partly explained paradoxically by the trade war. Chinese producers shipped as many goods as possible abroad before the new tariffs came into effect.
But the dynamism of China's exports in recent months also testifies to the country's ability to circumvent sanctions and find other outlets to replace the American market.
The US is being replaced
The trade war is profoundly changing international trade. Chinese exports to the United States are in free fall (-21.7% in July on an annual basis) and at their lowest level in more than 20 years.
On the other hand, exports to Asia are exploding. This is partly for transhipment operations and thus circumventing American sanctions. It is also a result of the relocation of the assembly of finished products to other Asian countries with low wage costs that import the necessary components from China.
Shipments of Chinese goods are also up sharply to Europe, the main alternative to the US market.
Where to invest in China
While Chinese exports are resilient to the trade war and continue to support economic activity, China's further development must now rely more on domestic demand. This is why the Beijing authorities are multiplying measures to support household consumption.
This change will be long and fraught with pitfalls. But China has the necessary assets to succeed, as our recommended portfolio suggests.
For a moment, sceptical international investors also increasingly believe that the Chinese economy still has a bright future ahead of it.
Thanks to reassuring economic data and the sound management of the trade war by the Beijing authorities, Chinese stock markets have been trending higher in recent months. It is not too late to invest in it.