U.S. inflation remained unchanged in July. Prices rose by 2.7% compared to July 2024, while month-on-month growth fell to 0.2% from 0.3% in June.
Investors very well received this figure. First, because it interrupts a slight rebound in inflation in previous months. But above all because the latter had regained hope that the Fed would lower its key rates at its September meeting when the latest employment data were released.
These figures showed a sharp slowdown in job creation in the United States, a sign of a less buoyant economy.
A reason to avoid rate cuts
The Fed was therefore urged by the White House (and investors) to lower interest rates to boost the economy. However, U.S. tariffs and the possibility of their impact on inflation posed a problem.
If inflation were to rise again, it would be difficult for the Fed to lower its key interest rates while claiming to defend price stability. The markets were therefore concerned that inflation would continue to rise.
They were therefore relieved that inflation remained stable in July (and even fell month-on-month) and see this as excellent news. They are now betting 90% on a cut in U.S. rates to the 4.0%-4.25% range at the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for 17 September (compared with 4.25%-4.5% currently).
Equities may be a good option
Naturally, the equity markets are delighted at the prospect of cheaper credit, which should boost household demand and make investment more affordable. This bodes well for the coming quarters.
While the U.S. equity market is not cheap, it remains on a firm footing, and the companies driving it forward have significant competitive advantages.
We are therefore continuing to invest in the U.S. across all our diversified portfolios. Discover our recommended asset allocation.
Inflation in the U.S.
(Annual change, in %) The stabilisation of U.S. inflation gives investors hope that key interest rates will soon be cut.